In today’s world, organisations are expected to manage ever-greater risk and uncertainty. Failure to do so effectively can result in considerable disruption to one’s strategy and operations.¬†With the help of a Strategic Early Warning System (SEWS), organisations are better prepared to anticipate risks, navigate surprise, and capitalise on opportunity. This two-day course provides a complete introduction to the discipline of early warning. Participants will learn how to develop and implement a SEWS, how to scan and monitor their operating environment for disruptions, and how to use early warning to improve strategic planning and decision making.

What You Will Learn

Preparation – Warning for what? Identifying your strategic warning needs
– Developing the SEWS: frameworks for action
– Challenging assumptions
– Managing blindspots and cognitive biases
Scanning and Monitoring – Weak vs. strong signals
– Issue mapping and environmental scanning
– Developing and validating indicators
– Working with strategic and operational data sources
– Developing and maintaining a sensor network
– Tools and technologies to support scanning and monitoring
Analysis – Issue / pattern analysis
– Low probability / high impact analysis
– Complexity analysis
– Technology forecasting
Warning – Communicating risk, uncertainty and warning
– Communicating opportunity
Response – Integrating early warning into strategic planning
– Use early warning to enhance decision making
– Course of action analysis
Organisational development – Managing the early warning system
– Cultivating strategic foresight in the workplace
– Enhancing individual and organisational sensemaking
– Learning from feedback and failure

Teaching Method: This is an intensive course combining theory with individual and group-based exercises built around real-world scenarios. Participants are expected to participate in group exercises and provide constructive feedback to their peers.

Language of Instruction: English

Target Audience: Managment, intelligence professionals, researchers, analysts, etc.

Course Requirements: Participants are encouraged to set up a Gmail account if they don’t have one.